Radar · 2026-07-01

What's moving through AI, ranked by lead time.

Radar is an hourly index of what's moving through the AI ecosystem, ranked by where each story sits on the lead-time gradient: papers become repos become community threads become analysis. The earlier a story is caught, the more head start you have before the crowd. Every row carries its receipts — which source saw it first, how many independent sources have it, how long ago — so the ranking explains itself. It's the public face of the same pipeline that feeds Vlad's Newsletter.

frozen 1 Jul 2026, 23:48 UTC · 66/78 feeds live · 8,731 tracked since 12 Jun

Moving now see all 40 ↓
40 tracked · 1 heating · 12 feeds quiet · 1 of 4 stations quiet
  1. 1 Chip Off The Old Block astralcodexten.com · 21h
  2. 2 Modeling Concepts Probabilistically lesswrong.com · 18m
  3. 3 Show HN: Toolnexus for Python – MCP, agent skills,a2a for any LLM pypi.org · 48m
  4. 4 AI welfare research needs basic science lesswrong.com · 48m
  5. 5 Show HN: Banto – Turn any topic into a live game room in minutes banto.tv · 54m
Lead-time spectrum
4 stations · 1 dark
0
Papers · dark
1
Repos
38
Community
1
Analysis

Today's radar skews to Community (38 of 40). 1 story is heating across independent sources. 40 arrived in the last 24 hours. The oldest survivor has held the board for 21h.

40
on the board
1
heating
40
new in 24h
notable lead
  1. 1
    Chip Off The Old Block
    astralcodexten.com
    Contrarian Analysis · 21h old · seen in 2 sources HEATING ×2
  2. 2
    Modeling Concepts Probabilistically
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 18m old · via LessWrong
  3. 3
    Show HN: Toolnexus for Python – MCP, agent skills,a2a for any LLM
    pypi.org
    Live Signal Community · 48m old · via Show HN
  4. 4
    AI welfare research needs basic science
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 48m old · via LessWrong
  5. 5
    Show HN: Banto – Turn any topic into a live game room in minutes
    banto.tv
    Live Signal Community · 54m old · via Show HN
  6. 6
    Healthy but Sedentary People Show Early Decline in Cellular Energy Production
    news.cuanschutz.edu
    Live Signal Community · 1h old · via Hacker News front
  7. 7
    Show HN: Shark Tank but you pitch your idea to indie hackers
    indiesharktank.vercel.app
    Live Signal Community · 1h old · via Show HN
  8. 8
    Claude Sonnet 5 Is Not Frontier But Has Its Uses
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 1h old · via LessWrong
  9. 9
    The Underhanded C Contest
    underhanded-c.org
    Live Signal Community · 1h old · via Hacker News front
  10. 10
    Show HN: GONK – Lightweight Edge-Native API Gateway in Go
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 1h old · via Show HN
  11. 11
    Opening up 'Zero-Knowledge Proof' technology to promote privacy in age assurance
    blog.google
    Live Signal Community · 1h old · via Hacker News front
  12. 12
    How Many People Have Ever Lived in the United States?
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 1h old · via LessWrong
  13. 13
    Conversations With Cade Metz on the Rationalists
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via LessWrong
  14. 14
    Show HN: Simulate what AI agents do to an engineering org (no signup)
    orgonaut.co
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
  15. 15
    Show HN: Forgejo Appliance, a private Git server based on OrbStack and Tailscale
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
  16. 16
    Do-it-yourself meta-analysis
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via LessWrong
  17. 17
    ZCode – Harness for GLM-5.2
    zcode.z.ai
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Hacker News front
  18. 18
    Show HN: ExpenseSpy – AI receipt scanner that exports to Excel, built solo
    expensespy.com
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
  19. 19
    Show HN: Moxie – an open-source money agent that can't act without your consent
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
  20. 20
    Japan has 41% of the 100-year companies – secrets of 1,447-year survival
    j-times.org
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Hacker News front
  21. 21
    Show HN: Zukr – offline OCR that flags hidden sugar names on food labels
    zukr.app
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  22. 22
    I Left Harry's All-Night Hamburgers
    escapepod.org
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Hacker News front
  23. 23
    Show HN: Intellisense style autocompletions inside of Bash
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  24. 24
    Show HN: Phixo – explains why an email in Gmail/Outlook is phishing
    chromewebstore.google.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  25. 25
    Show HN: OpenCan – Open-source, self-hostable Canny alternative (AGPL-3.0)
    opencan.dev
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  26. 26
    Qualcomm Linux 2.0
    qualcomm.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Hacker News front
  27. 27
    Proliferate (YC S25) Is Hiring
    ycombinator.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Hacker News front
  28. 28
    Show HN:An AI agent that applies to jobs for me (Playwright,GPT5.4 form filling)
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  29. 29
    When capabilities work is the *safe* bet
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via LessWrong
  30. 30
    Show HN: CLI that helps AI agents avoid vulnerable dependencies
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  31. 31
    Show HN: Searchable directory of 22k+ products from worker-owned co-ops
    workerowned.info
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · seen in 2 sources
  32. 32
    v2.1.198
    github.com
    Live Signal Repos · 3h old · via Claude Code releases
  33. 33
    One KW wind turbine without civil engineering
    windtowatt.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Hacker News front
  34. 34
    Show HN: Understand any codebase, explained for your role (Live Demo)
    youtube.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  35. 35
    The Value of Veridical Information
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via LessWrong
  36. 36
    How inevitable are most accessible hard-tech startups?
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via LessWrong
  37. 37
    What is Good? Antiruin and Nonabsolutism
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via LessWrong
  38. 38
    Show HN: A Replacement of WhatsApp Polls
    hive.gionn.net
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
  39. 39
    Show HN: I built a company formation tool that works inside your IDE via MCP
    lovie.co
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
  40. 40
    Show HN: CLI tool that gives your agents repo context, conventions, and rules
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN

How Radar works

The gradient. Stories travel through the AI ecosystem in a rough sequence: they appear first in papers (arXiv, Hugging Face) or repos (GitHub), then surface in community discussion (Hacker News, Lobsters, LessWrong), then get interpreted in analysis (operator newsletters and essays). Radar ranks by where a story sits on that gradient. The earlier it is caught, the more lead time you have before it reaches consensus.

The score. Each story gets a recency-decayed signal score. Every source tier carries a weight and a half-life, so live signal moves fast and fades fast while analysis sources move slowly and stay relevant longer. A story scores higher when two or more independent source families carry it — corroboration, not popularity, which is why five feeds of the same site count once. A small bonus applies when a story has visibly climbed the gradient. Stories past their tier's maximum age expire from the board.

Heating and lead time. A story is heating when it has surfaced in two or more independent source families. When the same story is observed first at an earlier stage and later at a higher one, Radar records the gap in hours — for example, seen on arXiv fourteen hours before it reached the Hacker News front page. That gap is the reader's lead time, and it is a measured span, never an estimate.

The honesty rule. Every value on this page is an observed fact from the feed log — which source carried a story, when, and how many. Radar makes no claim about what a story means; that is the newsletter's job. When a reading does not exist yet — no stories heating, nothing upstream — the page says so rather than inventing one.

How to read a row
The spectrum band
A filled flame tick is an early, lead-time-rich stage; a hollow tick is a later stage; a hollow ring on an empty span is a station with nothing on it yet.
Signal class
The tier chip: Live Signal moves fast and decays fast; analysis sources stay relevant longer. The ranker weights each accordingly.
heating
The same story in two or more independent source families — not two feeds of one site.
seen in / via
How many families carried it, or the single source that did.
The radar, dated
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