What's moving through AI, ranked by lead time.
Radar is a running index of what's moving through the AI ecosystem, ranked by where each story sits on the lead-time gradient: papers become repos become community threads become analysis. Every ingest run of the pipeline takes a fresh snapshot — several times a day, on no fixed clock — and the stamp below is the exact time of the one you're reading. The earlier a story is caught, the more head start you have before the crowd. Every row carries its receipts — which source saw it first, how many independent sources have it, how long ago — so the ranking explains itself. It's the public face of the same pipeline that feeds Vlad's Newsletter.
snapshot 10 Nov 2026, 04:40 UTC · 67/78 feeds live · 16,053 tracked since 12 Jun
- 1 Locating the source of a mysterious beep with Claude simonwillison.net · 5h
- 2 Show HN: ZTHR – what replaces code review when AI agents write all the code zthr.ai · 1h
- 3 CoreWeave bond yield tops 16% as AI credit stress rises cnbc.com · 1h
- 4 Show HN: AI Frothiness Index. Daily reading of how stretched the AI boom is frothiness.jagular.io · 2h
- 5 v2.1.322 github.com · 2h
540 stories entered the watched feeds in the last 24 hours — 228 in papers, 11 in repos, 265 in community, 36 in analysis. The scored board skews to Community (38 of 40). 1 story is heating across independent sources, and the median lead across the ledger's 21 observed fires is 4d — measured, not estimated. Freshest receipt, 46h ago: caught in GitHub Trending Python 119d before Show HN carried it. The oldest survivor has held the board for 6h.
- Repos → Community +119d lead GitHub Trending Python first · then Show HN 46h agovolcengine/OpenViking
- Papers → Community +22d lead arXiv cs.AI first · then Hacker News front 3d agoMemorilla: Latent Semantic Memory for LLMs
- Papers → Community +14h lead arXiv cs.AI first · then Hacker News front 9d agoProving and Improving the Platonic Representation Hypothesis with JEPAs
- 1Locating the source of a mysterious beep with Claudesimonwillison.netAI Firehose Analysis ·Practice · 5h old · seen in 2 sources HEATING ×2
- 2Show HN: ZTHR – what replaces code review when AI agents write all the codezthr.aiLive Signal Community · 1h old · via Show HN
- 3CoreWeave bond yield tops 16% as AI credit stress risescnbc.comLive Signal Community ·Business · 1h old · via Hacker News front
- 4Show HN: AI Frothiness Index. Daily reading of how stretched the AI boom isfrothiness.jagular.ioLive Signal Community ·Business · 2h old · via Show HN
- 5
- 6Show HN: Blabla Meter – Jev scores how useful page content is before you read itgithub.comLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
- 7Lightcone Commons: Round 1 complete, Round 2 underwaylesswrong.comLive Signal Community · 3h old · via LessWrong
- 8The Western AI safety playbook doesn’t transfer to Chinalesswrong.comLive Signal Community ·Policy & safety · 3h old · via LessWrong
- 9We need more transparency about alignment overfittinglesswrong.comLive Signal Community ·Policy & safety · 3h old · via LessWrong
- 10A Circularity at the Heart of Safety Assurancelesswrong.comLive Signal Community ·Policy & safety · 4h old · via LessWrong
- 11Show HN: I built a tool that babysits your agentsphysicsbase.aiLive Signal Community ·Tools · 4h old · via Show HN
- 12"Hardwired Pause" should likely be your favorite (pause) plan.lesswrong.comLive Signal Community · 4h old · via LessWrong
- 13Blunt Banhammer Blocks Basic Bots Ballisticallyshkspr.mobiLive Signal Community · 4h old · via Lobsters
- 14Would you press the button? The hard problem of alignmentlesswrong.comLive Signal Community ·Policy & safety · 4h old · via LessWrong
- 15Show HN: Nenya, a 0.5B-active base trained on 60B tokens, rivals Qwen3.5-2Bhuggingface.coLive Signal Community ·Models · 5h old · via Show HN
- 16Whose Side? A game where you audit models for secret loyaltieslesswrong.comLive Signal Community ·Policy & safety · 5h old · via LessWrong
- 17We have AI 2027. Where's Cyberpocalypse 2027?lesswrong.comLive Signal Community ·Policy & safety · 5h old · via LessWrong
- 18Show HN: Live counts of AI assistants reading a diaspora business directorynibiashara.comLive Signal Community · 6h old · via Show HN
- 19Show HN: Drop, self hosted, OSS file transfer for agentstwitter.comLive Signal Community ·Tools · 6h old · via Show HN
- 20
- 21Show HN: Kinsona – a hotel booking site that shows its cut on every bookingkinsona.comLive Signal Community · 1h old · via Show HN
- 22Show HN: Fynepdf-pdfa – PDF/A conversion without Ghostscript (MIT)github.comLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
- 23Show HN: Dating app based on your LinkedIn profilesynergy.datingLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
- 24Show HN: KeyPad – Universal Control like keyboard/mouse for iPhone, iPhone Duoapps.apple.comLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
- 25Show HN: BetterMan – man pages for all of Debian, with explain and portabilitybetterman.shLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
- 26
- 27
- 28Show HN: CMusee – C/C++ timeless debugger, record every function calledveefuse.comLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
- 29
- 30Show HN: FormaNest, Lay out a room in 3D in the browser and share it as a linkformanest.appLive Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
- 31Show HN: I abandoned my AVX2 128-bit fixed-point librarygithub.comLive Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
- 32Show HN: Stop Walking – A 10-level, one-button 3D rage game in the browserstopwalking.onlineLive Signal Community · 5h old · via Show HN
- 33
- 34The race to secure record-like information for domainsalexsci.comLive Signal Community · 5h old · via Lobsters
- 3525% of People Have Avoidant Attachment (But It Can Be Healed!)lesswrong.comLive Signal Community · 5h old · via LessWrong
- 36
- 37Fable 5.2 one-shotted my nephew's dream gamenotesbylex.comLive Signal Community · 6h old · via Hacker News front
- 38Exact – a new cross platform UI framework by the Expo teamgithub.comLive Signal Community · 6h old · via Hacker News front
- 39Show HN: FetchIndex – cost calculator for 19 scraping and search APIsfetchindex.comLive Signal Community · 6h old · via Show HN
- 40Show HN: First-year vs. renewal prices for 532 domain extensions, updated weeklygithub.comLive Signal Community · 6h old · via Show HN
How Radar works
The gradient. Stories travel through the AI ecosystem in a rough sequence: they appear first in papers (arXiv, Hugging Face) or repos (GitHub), then surface in community discussion (Hacker News, Lobsters, LessWrong), then get interpreted in analysis (operator newsletters and essays). Radar ranks by where a story sits on that gradient. The earlier it is caught, the more lead time you have before it reaches consensus. The spectrum at the top of the page shows the last 24 hours of that flow — every story that entered the watched feeds, counted at the station where it first appeared.
The score. Each story gets a recency-decayed signal score. Every source tier carries a weight and a half-life, so live signal moves fast and fades fast while analysis sources move slowly and stay relevant longer. A story scores higher when two or more independent source families carry it — corroboration, not popularity, which is why five feeds of the same site count once. A small bonus applies when a story has visibly climbed the gradient. Stories past their tier's maximum age expire from the board.
Heating and lead time. A story is heating when it has surfaced in two or more independent source families. When the same story is observed first at an earlier stage and later at a higher one, Radar records the gap in hours — for example, seen on arXiv fourteen hours before it reached the Hacker News front page. That gap is the reader's lead time, and it is a measured span, never an estimate.
The classifier. Two judgments on this page are made by a model, not read from the feed log. A small typed classifier (TypeSafe's Jev) answers one question per story — is it about AI? — and stories it judges not to be about AI move to the bottom of the board; nothing is removed. It was checked against 232 hand-labelled titles before it shipped and agreed with 97.8% of them. The same classifier assigns the topic shown on a story and used by the filter above; a topic appears only when the classifier is confident, and at that setting it matched the labels on 115 of 116 stories. Stories without a confident topic are listed under All.
The honesty rule. Every other value on this page is an observed fact from the feed log — which source carried a story, when, and how many. Beyond those two labelled judgments, Radar makes no claim about what a story means; that is the newsletter's job. When a reading does not exist yet — no stories heating, nothing upstream — the page says so rather than inventing one.
Questions
- What is the lead-time gradient?
- The path a story travels through the AI ecosystem: it appears first in papers (arXiv, Hugging Face) or repos (GitHub), then surfaces in community discussion (Hacker News, Lobsters, LessWrong), then gets interpreted in analysis (operator newsletters, essays). Radar ranks by where a story sits on that path and how far it has travelled.
- What does the lead-time spectrum show?
- Every story that entered Radar’s watched feeds in the last 24 hours, bucketed by the gradient station where it first appeared — papers, repos, community, or analysis. It is the day’s flow through the whole watched ecosystem, not the composition of the scored top 40 below it: a paper counts in the flow the moment it is observed, even while its signal score is still too low to earn a board row.
- How is Radar ranked?
- By a recency-decayed signal score: each source tier has a weight and a half-life, a story scores higher when independent source families corroborate it, and a small bonus applies when a story has visibly climbed the gradient. Stories past their tier max age expire from the board. Popularity on a single site is not corroboration.
- How often does Radar update?
- On every ingest run of the pipeline behind it — several times a day, on no fixed clock. Each run re-renders this page, so the stamp under the headline is the exact time of the snapshot you are reading, and the live board shows how old it is. A frozen snapshot is archived at a dated permalink each day, so the record is both current and citable.
- What does "heating" mean?
- A story has surfaced in two or more independent source families — not two feeds of the same site. It is corroboration, not popularity.
- What is the lead time reading?
- When the same story is observed first at an earlier gradient stage and later at a higher one, Radar records the gap in hours — for example, seen on arXiv 14 hours before it reached the Hacker News front page. That gap is your lead time. The fires ledger is rolling: a fire ages out with its story, roughly 45 days after the story’s last sighting, so the median lead always describes recent motion.
- What sources does Radar watch?
- Around 78 verified feeds across five tiers: live signal (Hacker News, Lobsters, GitHub trending, arXiv, Hugging Face papers), AI labs and firehose blogs, operator newsletters, contrarian essayists, and primary analysis. The registry is curated; aggregators are used only to corroborate a story, never to be the first to report it.
- Is Radar the newsletter?
- No. Radar shows what is moving; the newsletter tells you what to do about it. Radar is the free, public funnel; Vlad’s Newsletter is the weekly operator read.
- The spectrum band
- A filled flame tick is an early, lead-time-rich stage; a hollow tick is a later stage; a hollow ring on an empty span is a station with nothing on it yet.
- Signal class
- The tier chip: Live Signal moves fast and decays fast; analysis sources stay relevant longer. The ranker weights each accordingly.
- heating
- The same story in two or more independent source families — not two feeds of one site.
- seen in / via
- How many families carried it, or the single source that did.
Once a week, the operator read on what actually changed and the move it calls for. No digest, no hype.
Read the newsletter →