What's moving through AI, ranked by lead time.
Radar is an hourly index of what's moving through the AI ecosystem, ranked by where each story sits on the lead-time gradient: papers become repos become community threads become analysis. The earlier a story is caught, the more head start you have before the crowd. Every row carries its receipts — which source saw it first, how many independent sources have it, how long ago — so the ranking explains itself. It's the public face of the same pipeline that feeds Vlad's Newsletter.
frozen 12 Aug 2026, 23:04 UTC · 67/78 feeds live · 19,124 tracked since 12 Jun
- 1 Every reward-hacked policy I tested triggered the OPE alarm — and so did my best honest one lesswrong.com · 12m
- 2 Impact markets made concrete lesswrong.com · 18m
- 3 Show HN: Posts grew 6x since ChatGPT, but success rate remained relatively flat orangecrumbs.com · 1h
- 4 Show HN: Decant – Understand how you spend tokens github.com · 1h
- 5 Show HN: Remove AI Watermark from Text nomark.me · 1h
328 stories entered the watched feeds in the last 24 hours — 25 in papers, 7 in repos, 270 in community, 26 in analysis. The scored board skews to Community (39 of 40). 2 stories are heating across independent sources, and the median lead across the ledger's 23 observed fires is 4h — measured, not estimated. Freshest receipt, 29h ago: caught in Hacker News front 4h before Stratechery carried it. The oldest survivor has held the board for 9h.
- Community → Analysis +4h lead Hacker News front first · then Stratechery 29h agoNvidia's Risky Business
- Repos → Community +35h lead GitHub Trending Python first · then Show HN 2d agosuperlinked/sie
- Community → Analysis +2h lead Hacker News front first · then OpenAI News 5d agoResponding to the next frontier of critical cyber capabilities
- 1Every reward-hacked policy I tested triggered the OPE alarm — and so did my best honest onelesswrong.comLive Signal Community · 12m old · via LessWrong
- 2
- 3Show HN: Posts grew 6x since ChatGPT, but success rate remained relatively flatorangecrumbs.comLive Signal Community · 1h old · via Show HN
- 4Show HN: Decant – Understand how you spend tokensgithub.comLive Signal Community · 1h old · via Show HN
- 5
- 6Show HN: Keep batch LLM jobs from starving interactive traffic (TypeScript)github.comLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
- 7
- 8Show HN: VolumeM8 – Volume Control for Chromechromewebstore.google.comLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
- 9Show HN: TimeM8 – Time Tracking and Invoicingchromewebstore.google.comLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
- 10Show HN: DarkM8 – Dark Mode Chrome Extensionchromewebstore.google.comLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
- 11chessformer_lens app demo: Paul Morphy's Opera Game sacrificelesswrong.comLive Signal Community · 2h old · via LessWrong
- 12
- 13Show HN: Tmux-agent-switcher: see which Claude/Codex agents need your attentiongithub.comLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
- 14Show HN: We revived the archived Kubernetes Dashboard (Angular 16 → 22)github.comLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
- 15Show HN: A Linear agent that runs Claude Code sessions on your own machinegithub.comLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
- 16Show HN: Tandem Terminal – Share your terminal with a friendtandem-terminal.comLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
- 17Tailscale Traces Database Corruption to 16y/o SQLite WAL-Reset Bugtailscale.comLive Signal Community · 9h old · seen in 4 sources HEATING ×2
- 18Show HN: Sleezr – Manage your hosts file without opening a terminalsleezr.comLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
- 19Why Tiny JPEGs Look Different in Chromeguillaumetech.github.ioLive Signal Community · 9h old · seen in 2 sources HEATING ×2
- 20
- 21Show HN: I made a fun secure way to DM devs on GitHubtxta.devLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
- 22Show HN: Silent Shark – tactical map-based WWII submarine simsilentshark.appLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
- 23Show HN: Uptime Monitoring for Your Macurlguardian.appLive Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
- 24Show HN: NuFlow, visual, AI powered, low code, dev and deploy platformdeepcortex.comLive Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
- 25
- 26Show HN: Tired of rebuilding Twilio+LLM+billing for every voice-agent clientcallforge.devLive Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
- 27Show HN: Mooneva Cycle – Offline period tracker with no servers and no accountsgithub.comLive Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
- 28Show HN: Stream – Unlimited DeepSeek v4 Flash 0731camelai.comLive Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
- 29Unblocking AI's Continual Learning: Hints From How Humans Learnlesswrong.comLive Signal Community · 5h old · via LessWrong
- 30Show HN: Programmable timer web app (for gym workouts or stretching sessions)timer.jotaen.netLive Signal Community · 5h old · seen in 2 sources
- 31Show HN: A better, free client for iMessage power-usersnews.ycombinator.comLive Signal Community · 5h old · via Show HN
- 32
- 33Tabs, Spaces, Hand Tools, and Seat Beltsnewsletter.powderworks.devLive Signal Community · 5h old · via Lobsters
- 34
- 35Your Key to Success Isn't More Luck or Hard Workjulienreszka.comLive Signal Community · 5h old · via Hacker News front
- 36Show HN: Drift Fever – an HTML5 arcade game with an original soundtrackdriftfever.comLive Signal Community · 5h old · via Show HN
- 37Show HN: Apollodorus Video – batch video editor in the browser that runs locallyapollodorus.pages.devLive Signal Community · 5h old · via Show HN
- 38
- 39I found a KVM guest-to-host heap corruption bug and someone else got there firstblog.himanshuanand.comLive Signal Community · 5h old · via Lobsters
- 40Show HN: StarryKit – MCP for editable slides, posters and all visual designsgithub.comLive Signal Community · 5h old · via Show HN
How Radar works
The gradient. Stories travel through the AI ecosystem in a rough sequence: they appear first in papers (arXiv, Hugging Face) or repos (GitHub), then surface in community discussion (Hacker News, Lobsters, LessWrong), then get interpreted in analysis (operator newsletters and essays). Radar ranks by where a story sits on that gradient. The earlier it is caught, the more lead time you have before it reaches consensus. The spectrum at the top of the page shows the last 24 hours of that flow — every story that entered the watched feeds, counted at the station where it first appeared.
The score. Each story gets a recency-decayed signal score. Every source tier carries a weight and a half-life, so live signal moves fast and fades fast while analysis sources move slowly and stay relevant longer. A story scores higher when two or more independent source families carry it — corroboration, not popularity, which is why five feeds of the same site count once. A small bonus applies when a story has visibly climbed the gradient. Stories past their tier's maximum age expire from the board.
Heating and lead time. A story is heating when it has surfaced in two or more independent source families. When the same story is observed first at an earlier stage and later at a higher one, Radar records the gap in hours — for example, seen on arXiv fourteen hours before it reached the Hacker News front page. That gap is the reader's lead time, and it is a measured span, never an estimate.
The honesty rule. Every value on this page is an observed fact from the feed log — which source carried a story, when, and how many. Radar makes no claim about what a story means; that is the newsletter's job. When a reading does not exist yet — no stories heating, nothing upstream — the page says so rather than inventing one.
- The spectrum band
- A filled flame tick is an early, lead-time-rich stage; a hollow tick is a later stage; a hollow ring on an empty span is a station with nothing on it yet.
- Signal class
- The tier chip: Live Signal moves fast and decays fast; analysis sources stay relevant longer. The ranker weights each accordingly.
- heating
- The same story in two or more independent source families — not two feeds of one site.
- seen in / via
- How many families carried it, or the single source that did.
Once a week, the operator read on what actually changed and the move it calls for. No digest, no hype.
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