Radar · 2026-08-15

What's moving through AI, ranked by lead time.

Radar is an hourly index of what's moving through the AI ecosystem, ranked by where each story sits on the lead-time gradient: papers become repos become community threads become analysis. The earlier a story is caught, the more head start you have before the crowd. Every row carries its receipts — which source saw it first, how many independent sources have it, how long ago — so the ranking explains itself. It's the public face of the same pipeline that feeds Vlad's Newsletter.

frozen 15 Aug 2026, 23:37 UTC · 67/78 feeds live · 19,222 tracked since 12 Jun

Lead-time spectrum
flow, last 24h · 0 dark
223
Papers
3
Repos
203
Community
15
Analysis

444 stories entered the watched feeds in the last 24 hours — 223 in papers, 3 in repos, 203 in community, 15 in analysis. The scored board skews to Community (40 of 40). No stories are corroborated across independent sources yet, and the median lead across the ledger's 22 observed fires is 4h — measured, not estimated. Freshest receipt, 4d ago: caught in Hacker News front 4h before Stratechery carried it. The oldest survivor has held the board for 5h.

40
on the board
0
heating
40
new on board
4h
median lead
Latest fires — measured lead
  1. Community → Analysis +4h lead Hacker News front first · then Stratechery 4d ago
    Nvidia's Risky Business
  2. Repos → Community +35h lead GitHub Trending Python first · then Show HN 5d ago
    superlinked/sie
  3. Community → Analysis +2h lead Hacker News front first · then OpenAI News 8d ago
    Responding to the next frontier of critical cyber capabilities
  1. 1
    What do you think of LazyPromise as a lightweight alternative to Effect?
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 18m old · via Lobsters
  2. 2
    A Programming Paradigm for Spatiotemporal Composability
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 24m old · via Lobsters
  3. 3
    The Government Is Monitoring Anti-Flock TikTok and Instagram Accounts
    404media.co
    Live Signal Community · 1h old · via Hacker News front
  4. 4
    Show HN: Stratum – Rate books, films, and music to find users with similar taste
    joinstratum.app
    Live Signal Community · 1h old · via Show HN
  5. 5
    Kimi likes causal decision theory more after RL in twin prisoner’s dilemmas
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 1h old · via LessWrong
  6. 6
    SugarTrack – an offline Android logbook for blood sugar (no account, no cloud)
    sugartrack-beta.vercel.app
    Live Signal Community · 1h old · via Hacker News front
  7. 7
    Engineers will do anything to avoid learning from history
    horn.gg
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Hacker News front
  8. 8
    Modeling and Verification of Keeta's Consensus [pdf]
    xescu.re
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Hacker News front
  9. 9
    Bede Liu, a digital signal processing pioneer, has died
    spectrum.ieee.org
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Hacker News front
  10. 10
    The Wow signal was a strong narrowband radio signal detected on August 15, 1977
    en.wikipedia.org
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Hacker News front
  11. 11
    Show HN: Live Claude Usage HUD for a $38 Thermalright Trofeo Vision LCD
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · seen in 2 sources
  12. 12
    Show HN: TokenLab MCP, model discovery, pricing, and native AI endpoint tools
    tokenlab.sh
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
  13. 13
    Zig Day Seattle, WA
    zig.day
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Lobsters
  14. 14
    Does doubling a user profile change the effect of an instruction about using saved memories?
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via LessWrong
  15. 15
    Abdominal fat predicts heart disease risk better than BMI
    acc.org
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Hacker News front
  16. 16
    Show HN: Personal Stock – share a stake in your lifetime wealth
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
  17. 17
    Show HN: Open-source skill to run Matt Pocock's skills in bulk AFK
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  18. 18
    Show HN: Native experience for mobile web – Raylers
    raylers.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  19. 19
    Show HN: A mobile app to keep up with most important news on Agentic Coding
    apps.apple.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  20. 20
    Show HN: Open-source Grok Bot alternative
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  21. 21
    Cultivating a state of mind where new ideas are born (2023)
    henrikkarlsson.xyz
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Hacker News front
  22. 22
    Luck is a function of surface area.
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via LessWrong
  23. 23
    Show HN: Chrome extension that tracks job applications on your machine
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  24. 24
    Show HN: An interactive UI for the grill-me skill
    plannotator.ai
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  25. 25
    Humazon
    hughhowey.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Hacker News front
  26. 26
    What if Parameter Updates were Text?
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via LessWrong
  27. 27
    Using Chunked Monitoring to Detect Deception in Long Transcripts
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via LessWrong
  28. 28
    Recap: Software Should Work 2026
    bencornia.com
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via Lobsters
  29. 29
    Show HN: Stay connected across Africa, from landing to Safari
    safariesim.com
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
  30. 30
    Why tech bosses keep sharing their manifestos about AI
    bbc.com
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via Hacker News front
  31. 31
    Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
    severe-weather.eu
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via Hacker News front
  32. 32
    AI in drug discovery – what it is, where we stand and the path forward
    science.org
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via Hacker News front
  33. 33
    AI in drug discovery — what it is, where we stand and the path forward
    nature.com
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via Hacker News front
  34. 34
    How To Catch a Distilled Model
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 5h old · via LessWrong
  35. 35
    Show HN: Every MUNI, BART and Caltrain in SF on a Live Map
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 5h old · via Show HN
  36. 36
    Show HN: Premiss – Coding agents for building trading strategies
    premissai.com
    Live Signal Community · 5h old · via Show HN
  37. 37
    Tess's Android Wayland Compositor
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 5h old · via Hacker News front
  38. 38
    Voltair (YC W26) Is Hiring a Test Flight Engineer
    ycombinator.com
    Live Signal Community · 5h old · via Hacker News front
  39. 39
    Show HN: sce (Simple Console Editor)
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 5h old · via Show HN
  40. 40
    AI Isn't Outthinking Mathematicians. It's Out-Remembering Them
    davidepiffer.com
    Live Signal Community · 5h old · seen in 3 sources

How Radar works

The gradient. Stories travel through the AI ecosystem in a rough sequence: they appear first in papers (arXiv, Hugging Face) or repos (GitHub), then surface in community discussion (Hacker News, Lobsters, LessWrong), then get interpreted in analysis (operator newsletters and essays). Radar ranks by where a story sits on that gradient. The earlier it is caught, the more lead time you have before it reaches consensus. The spectrum at the top of the page shows the last 24 hours of that flow — every story that entered the watched feeds, counted at the station where it first appeared.

The score. Each story gets a recency-decayed signal score. Every source tier carries a weight and a half-life, so live signal moves fast and fades fast while analysis sources move slowly and stay relevant longer. A story scores higher when two or more independent source families carry it — corroboration, not popularity, which is why five feeds of the same site count once. A small bonus applies when a story has visibly climbed the gradient. Stories past their tier's maximum age expire from the board.

Heating and lead time. A story is heating when it has surfaced in two or more independent source families. When the same story is observed first at an earlier stage and later at a higher one, Radar records the gap in hours — for example, seen on arXiv fourteen hours before it reached the Hacker News front page. That gap is the reader's lead time, and it is a measured span, never an estimate.

The honesty rule. Every value on this page is an observed fact from the feed log — which source carried a story, when, and how many. Radar makes no claim about what a story means; that is the newsletter's job. When a reading does not exist yet — no stories heating, nothing upstream — the page says so rather than inventing one.

How to read a row
The spectrum band
A filled flame tick is an early, lead-time-rich stage; a hollow tick is a later stage; a hollow ring on an empty span is a station with nothing on it yet.
Signal class
The tier chip: Live Signal moves fast and decays fast; analysis sources stay relevant longer. The ranker weights each accordingly.
heating
The same story in two or more independent source families — not two feeds of one site.
seen in / via
How many families carried it, or the single source that did.
The radar, dated
Radar shows what's moving. The newsletter tells you what to do about it.

Once a week, the operator read on what actually changed and the move it calls for. No digest, no hype.

Read the newsletter →
Stay close

The next edition lands when this list says it does.

No course. No paywall. Operator playbooks weekly. 10K+ subscribers.