What's moving through AI, ranked by lead time.
Radar is a running index of what's moving through the AI ecosystem, ranked by where each story sits on the lead-time gradient: papers become repos become community threads become analysis. Every ingest run of the pipeline takes a fresh snapshot — several times a day, on no fixed clock — and the stamp below is the exact time of the one you're reading. The earlier a story is caught, the more head start you have before the crowd. Every row carries its receipts — which source saw it first, how many independent sources have it, how long ago — so the ranking explains itself. It's the public face of the same pipeline that feeds Vlad's Newsletter.
frozen 4 Sept 2026, 22:23 UTC · 67/78 feeds live · 19,096 tracked since 12 Jun
- 1 Stop Thinking of LLMs as Next-Token Predictors gmcgoldr.github.io · 5h
- 2 Mongotar: Files to prompt, and back github.com · 12m
- 3 Ban AI Superintelligence Form Letter lesswrong.com · 30m
- 4 Actively exploited sandbox RCE in all Chromium versions nvd.nist.gov · 30m
- 5 Open Telemetry as a First Metrological Layer for Technical AI Governance lesswrong.com · 36m
440 stories entered the watched feeds in the last 24 hours — 195 in papers, 8 in repos, 217 in community, 20 in analysis. The scored board skews to Community (39 of 40). 1 story is heating across independent sources, and the median lead across the ledger's 17 observed fires is 8h — measured, not estimated. Freshest receipt, 5d ago: caught in Hacker News front 6h before Dwarkesh Patel carried it. The oldest survivor has held the board for 5h.
- Community → Analysis +6h lead Hacker News front first · then Dwarkesh Patel 5d agoThe Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations
- Papers → Community +3d lead arXiv cs.AI first · then Hacker News front 7d agoAutonomous Mathematical Discovery in an Open-World Multi-Agent Environment
- Papers → Community +8h lead arXiv cs.AI first · then Show HN 9d agoThe Shadow Price of Intelligence: Quality Degradation in LLM Inference as a Supply Chain Problem
- 1Stop Thinking of LLMs as Next-Token Predictorsgmcgoldr.github.ioLive Signal Community · 5h old · seen in 2 sources HEATING ×2
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- 4Actively exploited sandbox RCE in all Chromium versionsnvd.nist.govLive Signal Community · 30m old · via Hacker News front
- 5Open Telemetry as a First Metrological Layer for Technical AI Governancelesswrong.comLive Signal Community · 36m old · via LessWrong
- 6A layman-friendly summary of alignment research and its difficultieslesswrong.comLive Signal Community · 36m old · via LessWrong
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- 8Does progress in AI safety require progress in AI capabilities?lesswrong.comLive Signal Community · 48m old · via LessWrong
- 9[Cross-post] Five Misunderstandings About AI’s Labor Impactslesswrong.comLive Signal Community · 48m old · via LessWrong
- 10The brain does not "finish developing" at 25.lesswrong.comLive Signal Community · 1h old · via LessWrong
- 11Exploring Mojo’s raw pointer typemelodyogonna.substack.comLive Signal Community · 1h old · via Lobsters
- 12Show HN: Marketplace for finding craft fairs and vendor eventsboothscout.comLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
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- 14Statichost.eu – 100% European static site hostingstatichost.euLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Hacker News front
- 15Show HN: Tesoro.help – rogue AI helpdesk for my kid's high schooltesoro.helpLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
- 16Show HN: Play Motodle (Guess the motorbike in 5 tries)playmotodle.comLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
- 17Show HN: Ultracapitalism, a Company-Building Autobattlerchromagolem.itch.ioLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
- 18Let's talk about the AI coordination problemlesswrong.comLive Signal Community · 2h old · via LessWrong
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- 20An open DNS recursive service for free security and high privacyquad9.netLive Signal Community · 2h old · via Hacker News front
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- 23Can AI design circuit boards yet?eebench.orgLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Hacker News front
- 24Eat Me. Drink Me. Copy, Paste, and Run Me.lesswrong.comLive Signal Community · 3h old · via LessWrong
- 25Show HN: Sageling – free, private, local, Cowork AI harness for non-devssageling.aiLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
- 26Show HN: Airuncode – an AI runtime coding agent with a built-in 3D game engineairuncode.comLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
- 27Show HN: Covenant – A governance framework for multi-agent AI systemsgithub.comLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
- 28Show HN: Fast-Paced Action Tile-Swapping Challengenopy.ioLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
- 29FLT: Anthropic has beaten me to itxenaproject.wordpress.comLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Lobsters
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- 31Show HN: MyHandler – Local-first AI assistant for Windows, llama.cpp on Vulkanmyhandler.aiLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
- 32Government Rails Site Hit Hours After CVE Patchrietta.comLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Hacker News front
- 33Show HN: Squeezed – Pipe any audio into synced Squeezebox players, no LMS neededgithub.comLive Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
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- 36Show HN: Ccswitch – Switch between multiple Claude Code accountsgithub.comLive Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
- 37Show HN: Visor – YouTube for kids, with channels approved by parentsgotvisor.comLive Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
- 38Shutting down our public encrypted DNSmullvad.netLive Signal Community · 4h old · via Hacker News front
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How Radar works
The gradient. Stories travel through the AI ecosystem in a rough sequence: they appear first in papers (arXiv, Hugging Face) or repos (GitHub), then surface in community discussion (Hacker News, Lobsters, LessWrong), then get interpreted in analysis (operator newsletters and essays). Radar ranks by where a story sits on that gradient. The earlier it is caught, the more lead time you have before it reaches consensus. The spectrum at the top of the page shows the last 24 hours of that flow — every story that entered the watched feeds, counted at the station where it first appeared.
The score. Each story gets a recency-decayed signal score. Every source tier carries a weight and a half-life, so live signal moves fast and fades fast while analysis sources move slowly and stay relevant longer. A story scores higher when two or more independent source families carry it — corroboration, not popularity, which is why five feeds of the same site count once. A small bonus applies when a story has visibly climbed the gradient. Stories past their tier's maximum age expire from the board.
Heating and lead time. A story is heating when it has surfaced in two or more independent source families. When the same story is observed first at an earlier stage and later at a higher one, Radar records the gap in hours — for example, seen on arXiv fourteen hours before it reached the Hacker News front page. That gap is the reader's lead time, and it is a measured span, never an estimate.
The honesty rule. Every value on this page is an observed fact from the feed log — which source carried a story, when, and how many. Radar makes no claim about what a story means; that is the newsletter's job. When a reading does not exist yet — no stories heating, nothing upstream — the page says so rather than inventing one.
- The spectrum band
- A filled flame tick is an early, lead-time-rich stage; a hollow tick is a later stage; a hollow ring on an empty span is a station with nothing on it yet.
- Signal class
- The tier chip: Live Signal moves fast and decays fast; analysis sources stay relevant longer. The ranker weights each accordingly.
- heating
- The same story in two or more independent source families — not two feeds of one site.
- seen in / via
- How many families carried it, or the single source that did.
Once a week, the operator read on what actually changed and the move it calls for. No digest, no hype.
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