Radar · 2026-09-04

What's moving through AI, ranked by lead time.

Radar is a running index of what's moving through the AI ecosystem, ranked by where each story sits on the lead-time gradient: papers become repos become community threads become analysis. Every ingest run of the pipeline takes a fresh snapshot — several times a day, on no fixed clock — and the stamp below is the exact time of the one you're reading. The earlier a story is caught, the more head start you have before the crowd. Every row carries its receipts — which source saw it first, how many independent sources have it, how long ago — so the ranking explains itself. It's the public face of the same pipeline that feeds Vlad's Newsletter.

frozen 4 Sept 2026, 22:23 UTC · 67/78 feeds live · 19,096 tracked since 12 Jun

Moving now see all 40 ↓
40 tracked · 1 heating · 11 feeds quiet · 0 of 4 stations quiet
  1. 1 Stop Thinking of LLMs as Next-Token Predictors gmcgoldr.github.io · 5h
  2. 2 Mongotar: Files to prompt, and back github.com · 12m
  3. 3 Ban AI Superintelligence Form Letter lesswrong.com · 30m
  4. 4 Actively exploited sandbox RCE in all Chromium versions nvd.nist.gov · 30m
  5. 5 Open Telemetry as a First Metrological Layer for Technical AI Governance lesswrong.com · 36m
Lead-time spectrum
flow, last 24h · 0 dark
195
Papers
8
Repos
217
Community
20
Analysis

440 stories entered the watched feeds in the last 24 hours — 195 in papers, 8 in repos, 217 in community, 20 in analysis. The scored board skews to Community (39 of 40). 1 story is heating across independent sources, and the median lead across the ledger's 17 observed fires is 8h — measured, not estimated. Freshest receipt, 5d ago: caught in Hacker News front 6h before Dwarkesh Patel carried it. The oldest survivor has held the board for 5h.

40
on the board
1
heating
40
new on board
8h
median lead
Latest fires — measured lead
  1. Community → Analysis +6h lead Hacker News front first · then Dwarkesh Patel 5d ago
    The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations
  2. Papers → Community +3d lead arXiv cs.AI first · then Hacker News front 7d ago
    Autonomous Mathematical Discovery in an Open-World Multi-Agent Environment
  3. Papers → Community +8h lead arXiv cs.AI first · then Show HN 9d ago
    The Shadow Price of Intelligence: Quality Degradation in LLM Inference as a Supply Chain Problem
  1. 1
    Stop Thinking of LLMs as Next-Token Predictors
    gmcgoldr.github.io
    Live Signal Community · 5h old · seen in 2 sources HEATING ×2
  2. 2
    Mongotar: Files to prompt, and back
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 12m old · via Lobsters
  3. 3
    Ban AI Superintelligence Form Letter
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 30m old · via LessWrong
  4. 4
    Actively exploited sandbox RCE in all Chromium versions
    nvd.nist.gov
    Live Signal Community · 30m old · via Hacker News front
  5. 5
    Open Telemetry as a First Metrological Layer for Technical AI Governance
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 36m old · via LessWrong
  6. 6
    A layman-friendly summary of alignment research and its difficulties
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 36m old · via LessWrong
  7. 7
    GPT-6 Astra on OpenRouter
    openrouter.ai
    Live Signal Community · 42m old · via Hacker News front
  8. 8
    Does progress in AI safety require progress in AI capabilities?
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 48m old · via LessWrong
  9. 9
    [Cross-post] Five Misunderstandings About AI’s Labor Impacts
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 48m old · via LessWrong
  10. 10
    The brain does not "finish developing" at 25.
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 1h old · via LessWrong
  11. 11
    Exploring Mojo’s raw pointer type
    melodyogonna.substack.com
    Live Signal Community · 1h old · via Lobsters
  12. 12
    Show HN: Marketplace for finding craft fairs and vendor events
    boothscout.com
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
  13. 13
    Show HN: Set Game for iOS
    apps.apple.com
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
  14. 14
    Statichost.eu – 100% European static site hosting
    statichost.eu
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Hacker News front
  15. 15
    Show HN: Tesoro.help – rogue AI helpdesk for my kid's high school
    tesoro.help
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
  16. 16
    Show HN: Play Motodle (Guess the motorbike in 5 tries)
    playmotodle.com
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
  17. 17
    Show HN: Ultracapitalism, a Company-Building Autobattler
    chromagolem.itch.io
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Show HN
  18. 18
    Let's talk about the AI coordination problem
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via LessWrong
  19. 19
    How to Create a Tor Exit Node
    madpsy.uk
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Hacker News front
  20. 20
    An open DNS recursive service for free security and high privacy
    quad9.net
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via Hacker News front
  21. 21
    Probing for Calibrated Rare Action
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 2h old · via LessWrong
  22. 22
    v2.1.261
    github.com
    Live Signal Repos · 2h old · via Claude Code releases
  23. 23
    Can AI design circuit boards yet?
    eebench.org
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Hacker News front
  24. 24
    Eat Me. Drink Me. Copy, Paste, and Run Me.
    lesswrong.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via LessWrong
  25. 25
    Show HN: Sageling – free, private, local, Cowork AI harness for non-devs
    sageling.ai
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  26. 26
    Show HN: Airuncode – an AI runtime coding agent with a built-in 3D game engine
    airuncode.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  27. 27
    Show HN: Covenant – A governance framework for multi-agent AI systems
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  28. 28
    Show HN: Fast-Paced Action Tile-Swapping Challenge
    nopy.io
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  29. 29
    FLT: Anthropic has beaten me to it
    xenaproject.wordpress.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Lobsters
  30. 30
    Show HN: Coder Eval – A Framework for Evals
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  31. 31
    Show HN: MyHandler – Local-first AI assistant for Windows, llama.cpp on Vulkan
    myhandler.ai
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  32. 32
    Government Rails Site Hit Hours After CVE Patch
    rietta.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Hacker News front
  33. 33
    Show HN: Squeezed – Pipe any audio into synced Squeezebox players, no LMS needed
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  34. 34
    Show HN: Slavesofaipac.org
    slavesofaipac.org
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Show HN
  35. 35
    Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean 4
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 3h old · via Hacker News front
  36. 36
    Show HN: Ccswitch – Switch between multiple Claude Code accounts
    github.com
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
  37. 37
    Show HN: Visor – YouTube for kids, with channels approved by parents
    gotvisor.com
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via Show HN
  38. 38
    Shutting down our public encrypted DNS
    mullvad.net
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via Hacker News front
  39. 39
    Formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem
    anthropic.com
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · seen in 3 sources
  40. 40
    Babashka 1.13.220 gets FFI
    blog.michielborkent.nl
    Live Signal Community · 4h old · via Lobsters

How Radar works

The gradient. Stories travel through the AI ecosystem in a rough sequence: they appear first in papers (arXiv, Hugging Face) or repos (GitHub), then surface in community discussion (Hacker News, Lobsters, LessWrong), then get interpreted in analysis (operator newsletters and essays). Radar ranks by where a story sits on that gradient. The earlier it is caught, the more lead time you have before it reaches consensus. The spectrum at the top of the page shows the last 24 hours of that flow — every story that entered the watched feeds, counted at the station where it first appeared.

The score. Each story gets a recency-decayed signal score. Every source tier carries a weight and a half-life, so live signal moves fast and fades fast while analysis sources move slowly and stay relevant longer. A story scores higher when two or more independent source families carry it — corroboration, not popularity, which is why five feeds of the same site count once. A small bonus applies when a story has visibly climbed the gradient. Stories past their tier's maximum age expire from the board.

Heating and lead time. A story is heating when it has surfaced in two or more independent source families. When the same story is observed first at an earlier stage and later at a higher one, Radar records the gap in hours — for example, seen on arXiv fourteen hours before it reached the Hacker News front page. That gap is the reader's lead time, and it is a measured span, never an estimate.

The honesty rule. Every value on this page is an observed fact from the feed log — which source carried a story, when, and how many. Radar makes no claim about what a story means; that is the newsletter's job. When a reading does not exist yet — no stories heating, nothing upstream — the page says so rather than inventing one.

How to read a row
The spectrum band
A filled flame tick is an early, lead-time-rich stage; a hollow tick is a later stage; a hollow ring on an empty span is a station with nothing on it yet.
Signal class
The tier chip: Live Signal moves fast and decays fast; analysis sources stay relevant longer. The ranker weights each accordingly.
heating
The same story in two or more independent source families — not two feeds of one site.
seen in / via
How many families carried it, or the single source that did.
The radar, dated
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